HERE'S THE THING: WEEK 2 - THE RESUME GAME

Syracuse travels to Iowa today for what I like to call a "resume game" for Greg Robinson. He knows he can't win, he's waiting to be fired at his current job, and he's just looking for a soft place to fall. You watch him when he greets Coach Ferentz at the end of the game, that's not a playsheet he's surreptitiously handing him, it's a resume. Hang on, first, let me tell you how Greg Robinson got here.

Greg Robinson: Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. That was the tag on G Rob for 20 years. He was a career assistant, primarily with the Denver Broncos, where he was the defensive coordinator when they won Super Bowls in both '97 & '98. He was a well respected coach but never got a head coaching job. His name was bandied about for countless jobs and he'd interview, but the team would "go in another direction". It was a mystery (to some). Finally, in 2005, he found someone to ch-ch-choose him. Greg Robinson and Syracuse said "I do" and he was finally a head coach.

He was the guy expected to bring their program back to prominence. They were thinking Heismans, bowl games, and conference titles. Things were looking grand! But tragedy struck this happy couple in their very first year of marriage. They were a bad fit, and moreover, Robinson was a shitty head coach. They won 1 game in his first season, coming off consecutive 5 win seasons under the much maligned Paul Pasqualoni. The natives were instantly restless but anxious to see what Robinson could do with "his boys" in the program. In 2006, after a narrow loss to Iowa in 2 OTs, they ripped off 3 wins in a row. It'd been a bumpy road but they were a happy couple again. They were thinking about a bowl game and maybe, just maybe, a conference title. But alas, they lost their next 5 games and things went to hell in a handbasket. In 2 seasons, Robinson had managed to have more losing seasons (yeah, 2) than Pasqualoni did in his 14 years as HC.



After a rough offseason where he shook a lot of hands, kissed a lot of babies, and told a lot of lies, G Rob had people convinced this was the year. There was talk of wreaking havoc in the Big East. They opened at home against the curiously ineffective Ty Willingham and the Washington Huskies. It was time for the Orange to put the squeeze on someone else for a change (I'm sorry). They came out of the gates like a drunken sailor, throwing enthusiastic punches around, flailing wildly, with none of them connecting. The Huskies beat the shit out of them on both sides of the ball. Syracuse managed to average 0.3 YPC on the ground against 2006's last ranked defense in the Pac 10 (also in that conference: Stanford). What's worse, on the defensive side of the ball, Robinson's forte!, they managed to make Jake Locker (no way is that a real name) look like Vince Young. If Beano Cook was alive he'd proclaim him a lock for 4 Heismans. It was one of those career/program defining games, partially because it was the opener on national television, but mostly because it was time for Robinson to deliver on all of his promises at once. He failed, let the whole family down (again), and this marriage is over. The worst part is, everyone knows it, and they're resigned to wait until someone finally puts in the paperwork to end it. Some people just aren't cut out to be a head coach (I'm looking at you, Dan McCarney). They don't have the pomposity, mental acuity, or sheer ego to stare certain failure in the face, and grin, that it takes to be a head coach in Division I football. Some guys are coordinators for life and G Rob is one of them.

The good news is, now the Orange have to travel to Iowa City and face the most ferocious defensive line they'll see all year. I'm predicting pain. Andrew Robinson will be huddled in the fetal position in the corner of the locker room at the half. They'll have to use promises of candy and a pony to get him out for the second half. Throughout the game, he'll pick himself up off the turf after another sack in 3rd & long, he'll go to the sideline looking for help and he'll see that blank look on G Rob's face that will tell him, "you're all alone out there, kid. Good luck." The whole game G Rob will have a faraway look on his face as he's mentally rehearsing what he'll say to Coach Fernentz in their 3 second post game handshake and just how he'll slip his resume to him.



So what's the one thing we need to do this week to win? Not a damn thing. Syracuse is one of the worst teams in college football. They don't pass well, run well, and they don't even tackle. We can go out there, run the same play all day and win. Nothing fancy, nothing cute, nothing creative. Syracuse is the drunk in the bar you don't bother with. You just let them do their thing and they'll fall down on their own. No reason to get your hands dirty with this one, Hawkeyes. Take your 30 points, try for a shutout, and we can all laugh at G Rob's resume after the game.

One more thing, it's a night game and we all know what that means. The tailgates still start at 6am, but instead of filing into Kinnick at 10:30, you drink for an extra 8 hours. I know, it's awesome, and I'm sorry I'm missing this one. However, I still ask that you follow JHC's 3 simple rules for being an Iowa fan:

1) Don't boo.
2) Don't chuck bottles at people (even if it's a dude wearing orange sweatbands).
3) If you drink, don't drive.

Make us proud out there.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There's a game on Saturday?

Think about the Syracuse football program. Do it. DO AS I SAY! Now, consider the names that come to mind: Donovan McNabb, Marvin Harrison, Troy Nunes, Larry Csonka, Jim Brown, etc. Their post-WW2 history is dripping with big names--big names that haven't been there for a long, long time. Now, without looking, name one current all-conference Syracuse player. Hell, name one current Syracuse player. You can't do it, can you?

Indeed, in the context of the past 60 years, the most remarkable thing about the Syracuse franchise might be how little they represent today.

They inherited the region's attention from fading programs in Annapolis and West Point in the early '50s. Aside from Pittsburgh borrowing the mantle for a decade starting in the late 70's--and perhaps a couple burps from Boston College and Rutgers--Syracuse has been the unquestioned king of college football in New England for as long as your grandfather's had pubes.

And yet, no matter what level of success they attained, they've never outshined New England's pigskin drug of choice: the NFL. It seems counterintuitive, but the attention given to college football in ESPN's neck of the woods is scant--especially considering the inordinate attention heaped upon nearby franchises in MLB and the NFL. Mock if you must, but imagine the anguish of so many years playing second fiddle to anything, much less the NFL. Let's be real. Iowa's been worse as a regional alpha dog over the last 25 years than Syracuse has been as a second fiddle. And yet here we find ourselves in 2007 with Iowa a prohibitive favorite.

So now Syracuse finds itself no closer to its big brother, decades of stellar play discarded like so many piss jugs on the highway. Indeed, their most remarkable youtube clips are The Stand and this clip. Watch for the instant replays, which take the following play from "ill-advised 13-foot leap" to "likely attempted murder."


So six decades and one tailback's soiled pants notwithstanding, what's there to expect from tomorrow's game? If it gives you any indication, TNIAAM has this to say:

How Fucked Are We?: Very. Last year was The Stand. Lost in that nail-biting finish was the fact that Iowa fully expected to cakewalk in that game. They remember that. And they are at home this year. In front of a sold-out crowd. And they smell blood. And urine.

Most revenge isn't spread-based, but then again, most opponents aren't late-aughts Syracuse. And with a look at the matchups tomorrow, it seems clear that Iowa will coast to victory.

WHEN IOWA HAS THE BALL

Iowa OL vs. Syracuse DL

The Orange defensive line was miserable last Saturday, never so much as threatening Jake Locker (not a real name) or his partner in crime, Louis Rankin. On the whole, Washington rushed for over 300 yards on 41 carries, which is a sure sign that the Cuse defensive line is worthless.

Iowa, meanwhile, was solid on the line last week. LT Dace Richardson is practicing, but not expected to start (if play at all) tomorrow. No matter; LT Kyle Calloway (seen here in action) stoned big-shot DE Larry English to the tune of one tackle on the day. Expect the Hawkeyes to enjoy another easy day in the trenches tomorrow.

Iowa WR/TE vs. Syracuse DB

Catch the fucking ball, would you guys? Advantage: Syracuse, if only because the Hawkeyes will be doing the Orangemen's job for them.

Iowa RB vs. Syracuse LB

Albert Young and Damian Sims may not replicate last week's triple-double (or double-triple? whatever. they both had over 100 yards), but they should continue to rack up yards with impunity. Meanwhile, there is simply nothing good you can say about Syracuse's linebackers, who will be opponents in name only tomorrow.

Iowa QB vs. Syracuse D

Jake Christensen's numbers were rather lackluster against NIU (12-29, 133, 1 TD), but about half of the incompletions came from drops, so it's not as if he was lousy last week. Still, he seemed out of rhythm in the first half, often throwing passes unnecessarily hard. That, plain and simple, cannot continue. If it does, Iowa is in trouble.

Syracuse's pass defense allowed only 142 yards to Jake Locker, but that was only on 19 passes (which is in and of itself a mystery; WHY ARE YOU PASSING AT ALL?! Look at their front 7!). Jake Christensen should find himself in a similar role Saturday, tossing short- to medium-length passes whenever he senses the wide receivers getting bored. How do you folks feel about 13-21, 160 yards, and a touchdown? Good enough? Good.

WHEN SYRACUSE HAS THE BALL

Syracuse OL vs. Iowa DL

Washington registered seven sacks on hapless QB Andrew Robinson last week, though the number jumps to 11 if you count the teabagging that the starting four gave him. Worse yet, they allowed the Orange to tally eight yards of rushing on the day. Eight. Realistically, the Iowa defensive line should be able to reduce Robinson to the Grape Stomping Lady by the middle of the third quarter.

Syracuse WR/TE vs. Iowa DB

I'm still not sold on the secondary as yet, but they played with a spark that we, y'know, might have wanted to see last year too. Obviously, Godfrey will not continue to collect two interceptions a game, but his play was stellar throughout the course of the contest against NIU, and it's reasonable to think he'll continue to keep that up.

Syracuse's receivers are ho-hum, with Taj Smith an underwhelming first option. Another advantage for Iowa.

Syracuse RB vs. Iowa LB

Curtis Brinkley (son of Christie and Billy Joel) is the Orangemen's starting tailback, and while he is a solid receiving option out of the backfield, he was smothered in the backfield, tallying just four yards on six carries. Fellow tailback Derrell Smith barely fared better, with a whopping 19 yards on five totes against garbage-time defenders. The Iowa rush defense should allow similarly anemic numbers Saturday.

Syracuse QB vs. Iowa D

Poor Andrew Robinson. He had a pretty decent day on Saturday, going 20-32 for 199 yards and a score. But that offensive line against this Iowa front four? He may want to ask his trainers to reinforce his pads with steel. There is no area of play on offense where it looks as if Syracuse will have an advantage, and Iowa's defense will be typically strong. Is a shutout in the offing? Maybe. You certainly can't rule it out, can you?

SPECIAL TEAMS

Let's make one thing clear: If Austin Signor keeps leaving four easy points off the board, it will come back to haunt Iowa, and he will not be kicking for much longer. That said, he earned his spot as the starting kicker over the course of practice, so he's probably going to be better than the NIU game on the whole. If he isn't, he'll be yanked. Simple as that.

Between that, the shank job that Ryan Donahue pulled in the first quarter of the Syracuse game, and the generally baffling play of the coverage teams, I can't say Iowa's at an advantage here.

COACHES

Greg Robinson's sheer ineptitude is going to come back to haunt me in about 48 hours.

You'll see.

Iowa wins easy. 37-7 or something similar.

Here's The Thing

Every week we'll be bringing you the "most important thing" to watch for that week in Iowa's game. Whether you're an expert or a novice, you'll be able to look for one thing and know, right away, if the Hawkeyes are going to win. This week is particularly easy:

If we stop the run up the middle, we win.

It really is that simple. If you look at film from 2002-2004 you'll find an Iowa team that was damn near impossible to attack up the gut. We forced opponents into 2nd & 9's and 10's which immediately applies pressure to the opponent's Offensive Coordinator. It's the 1st quarter and he's forced to go off script. He wants to establish the run and show those farmboys who's boss, so he calls another run. It fails too, and now they're in 3rd & long. You want to know the only statistic that matters to the great and powerful JHC? Opponent's yards to go on 3rd down. Doesn't sound sexy but if you dominate this category it wins more games than anything else. Turnovers, dropped passes, and special teams are fluky. They're difficult to control and impossible to predict but if you keep your opponent in 3rd & long you will win 100% of the time. This is science and therefore cannot be disputed.

3rd & long forces your opponent to throw and that's when bad things happen, man. You might think throwing is fun, but ask a grizzled Offensive Coordinator and they'll tell you that there are 3 possible results (completion, incompletion, interception) from a pass attempt and 2 of them are bad. It also forces their quarterback to think and there's nothing an OC hates more than that. They don't want some college kid free lancing and making decisions out there. It takes the control out of their hands and it gives them ulcers.

The other result of a passing situation is the sack and nothing fuels a defense more than a sack. All the D talks about all week is hitting the QB and once they get a taste of him on game day they become obsessed. One guy gets a taste and the whole pack wants some. They start passing the QB around like a teen runaway at a biker rally. It's a beautiful thing.

The biggest difference between our good teams and our... ahem... average teams of the last 2 seasons has been our commitment to stopping the run up the gut. As you may know, Defensive Coordinator Norm Parker doesn't do much in the way of adjustments. We give you pretty much the same look in every situation and it's up to you to beat us. Stopping the run is about attitude and focus. I'm not sure how to say this, but basically, our attitude has been soft and our focus has been elsewhere. The strength of this year's team is our defensive line. Kenny Iwebema, Mitch King, Matt Kroul, and Bryan Mattison all have a legitimate shot at 1st Team All Big 10. You think they aren't going to compete? You think one of these guys wants to be the one who doesn't get mentioned at the end of the year? They do their job and we win 10 games. They don't and it's going to be another long season. The success or failure of this team lies in their hands and they know it. You watch the first half of the game today and you'll know it too.

We've been waiting for 8 months and game day is finally here. It's a new season and we can finally get the bad taste from last year out of our mouth. So let's agree to bury it and look forward to this year and starting fresh.
If you're going to the game and tailgating, please follow JHC's 3 simple rules:

1) Don't boo.
2) Don't chuck bottles at people (even if it's a girl in an Ohio State sweatshirt).
3) If you drink, don't drive.

Make us proud out there.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There's a game on Saturday?

Lost amidst all the hub and/or bub about the off-season here at THC is the fact that Iowa actually has a game tomorrow, and it's actually against a different team. It actually never dawned on us until Thursday night that we'd never even talked about the opponent (as JHC put it, "God we're idiots.").

Here's what to expect from Northern Illinois, a team that played Iowa to an even closer game than the 24-14 score suggests: it took a fourth-down TD pass late in the game to push the margin back to 10 points. Sure, the only reason Iowa wasn't kicking was the fact that Kyle Schlicher had already missed two field goals, but still. It was a three-point game with under five minutes to go, and NIU was rolling.

It's tempting to see that the teams were ten points apart last year, look at the fact that the game's in Chicago, and start flipping out that NIU could win. That's probably not the case. A look at the individual matchups reveals that Iowa ought to win comfortably.

WHEN IOWA IS ON OFFENSE

Iowa OL vs. NIU DL

This would be the largest disparity in talent between the two teams if everyone was healthy. Unfortunately, LT Dace Richardson remains out while his knee recovers at a slower pace than expected. He might be back for Syracuse, but it's doubtful. The rest of the Iowa line is green, but good. Andy Kuempel and the dulcet-toned Julian Vandervelde have beaten out VHT's(!) Dan Doering and Tyler Blum at the guard spots, and the duo of RT Seth Olsen and C Rafael Eubanks are the most experienced linemen on the team. Best of all, with the Richardson injury aside, the other four linemen have spent weeks together as a unit, which is vital to an offensive line's effectiveness.

NIU fields two returning defensive ends, and one--junior Larry English--is probably the best in the MAC. He recorded 12 sacks as a sophomore last year, and there's no reason to believe he won't improve on that number. Still, he's a rush end, and the Huskies must replace their top three interior linemen on defense. Iowa figures to be able to create gaps between the tackles, and this is a clear advantage for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa WR/TE vs. NIU DB

We all know what happened in the Douglas/Bowman Affair. It's wildly unlikely that they'll be back this year. That's in the past now.

WR Andy Brodell, as you might recall, blew Texas the fuck up. The other likely starter, fellow IGWWR Trey Stross, is the best deep threat on the team. So it's not as if Iowa is doomed at the wideout position. Beyond those two are James "Intimidator" Cleveland and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos-Papadopalis, both of whom are considered assets.

At tight end, Tony Moeaki is peerless in all facets of the game. His backup, second-stringer Brandon Myers... is not. And that's about all that needs to be said about the position.

NIU returns two capable (if not particularly talented) cornerbacks in Bradley Pruitt and Melvin Rice. The two started the majority of last season's games, though a combination of two experienced cornerbacks is pretty unremarkable:

"I will cover the flanker on my side of the field."
"I will cover the split end 30 yards away, which is on my side of the field."
"This is terribly complex. Our learning curve is clearly at least a dozen games long."
"I know. Better luck next year, compadre."

For what it's worth, the Man of Steele does not rank either as at least third-team all-MAC, so the starting experience should not trouble Iowa fans.

The Huskies' safeties are similarly unremarkable, neither being especially touted or experienced. While there are very few "weak links" on a Joe Novak team, the Iowa passing game has no reason to fear safeties like Mark Reiter or Spencer Williamson.

Again, the advantage belongs to Iowa.

Iowa RB vs. NIU LB

At their best, AY and Sims were a redux of the dynamite combo from 10 years ago of Sedrick Shaw and Tavian Banks. At their 2006 usual, they were a system of trading one deep flaw for another.

Young was particularly disappointing; the 2005 season, his first back from the torn ACL, was full of brilliance within the first 15 yards from the line of scrimmage. His breakaway speed, meanwhile, was understandably missing. That was filled by Sims, who averaged a flatly absurd 9.9 yards per carry (hellooo, outliers!).

Then last year happened and all hell broke loose. Young never seemed to be 100%, frequently brought down by defensive linemen and almost never testing his speed against the secondary. His yards per carry fell an almost unfathomable full yard; if he's healthy again, then we should expect him to revert to his 1,334 (5.4 ypc) form.

Damian Sims also returns. Sims has come a long way from his true freshman year, trying to run the ball at 160 pounds soaking wet, and he seems ready to take on an expanded role. He spent too many plays in 2006 chasing after his own fumbles, however. That's largely a matter for reps and practice, so he should be able to fix that problem. Sims is more of a Fred Russell than your typical third-down, smallish backs, but the Ferentz/O'Keefe offense has never depended on a third-down back; now's not the time to start lamenting the absence.

While Sims will never be confused for the transcendent talent that was Carlton Tavian Banks (except if this actually happens), Albert Young's ceiling for 2007 closely mirrors that of Sedrick Shaw in 1996. A safe standard for success would be 1,100 yards for Young and 500 for Sims. If the two can't combine for more than 140 per game in 2006, Iowa is in trouble. The first test will be against NIU, and it will be very telling.

As far as the Huskies' defense, the linebackers are for the most part nothing special. They're stout up the middle with Tim McCarthy, but by and large they're smallish (averaging about 220 pounds across the board) and not particularly exciting. They're moderately productive, having given up fewer than four yards per carry during each of the last five seasons, but that's easy when the only good tailback in the conference is standing on your sidelines. Once again, Iowa looks to be at an advantage.

Iowa QB vs. NIU D

Anyone who worries about Jake Christensen's poise here, quite frankly, has not been paying attention to the young man during his career at Iowa. He has displayed uncommon amounts of maturity and leadership, and there's no question that this is his offense and his team. The NIU defense is, while well-coached, just not a fearsome unit. Iowa is across-the-board better.

WHEN IOWA IS ON DEFENSE

NIU OL vs. Iowa DL

The Huskies' offensive line has typically been a strength, allowing tailbacks like Garrett Wolfe and Michael Turner to rush for more than 10,000 yards over the last seven seasons. That's very many yards, especially considering Turner only rushed for about 400 yards in 2001. Leading the way is LT Jon Brost, a 6'6" beastman who has started 23 games thus far and will likely hear his name called on draft day two years from now. Past that, sophomore Jason Onyebuagu has earned mountains of praise from the NIU coaching staff, and he will likely garner all-conference accolades before his college career is over.

As far as the Iowa defensive line, well, which line do you think will show up? Will it be the one that terrorized offenses at the end of 2005? Will it be the 2006 line that simply leaned on the offensive line instead of blowing past them? If they're healthy, every single starter on Iowa's side is great. Bryan Mattison is generally the most consistent of the bunch, playing a very Kampman-esque role in both pass rush and run support. Mitch King and Kenny Iwebema battled nagging injuries all year, occasionally missing games. So while it may be unfair to tag them as "mercurial," they've both had some mental lapses (King's personal fouls and Iwebema's unspecified misbehavior) that have negatively impacted the line's performance as well. They've both got to put together 12 good games this season.

NIU head coach Joe Novak is particularly worried about the matchup:

"Iowa is always a big, strong, physical football team,” Novak said. “That’s Kirk Ferentz. That’s Iowa kids. The front four, it’s the most physical one we play all year. I don’t want to play one that’s better than them.

“If we can’t block their front four, Dan or our running backs aren’t going to have a chance.”

More on Dan later.

Gotta say Iowa's at a distinct advantage on this side of the trenches as well.

NIU WR/TE vs. Iowa DB

This is probably the Huskies' strongest unit, and they're facing Iowa's weakest. WR Britt Davis is big, strong, (6'2" 205), and fast--he's their #1 receiver. On the other side of the field will be Marcus Perez, an able kick returner with speed to burn. Combine that with TE Brandon Davis (who, if google serves me right, is Paris Hilton's friend), and QB Dan Nicholson should have plenty of targets to throw to.

As for the Iowa defensive backs, yikes. We all know how Adam Shada performed last year, and let's just hope he's got his confidence back. Bradley Fletcher might have been able to start on the other side, but he decided after too many cocktails that he absolutely had to get behind the wheel. He will not be playing football tomorrow. So it'll be Charles Godfrey, who has been decent.

At the safety spots, Kirk Ferentz was overjoyed to get Devan Moylan back. And to be sure, when a coach is excited about getting a walk-on without extensive playing time back to compete for a starting role, that position is in trouble. Essentially, there's little to no proven quality here, and it's a major disadvantage for Iowa.

NIU RB vs. Iowa LB

Garrett Wolfe is gone, and that is wonderful news. Iowa shut him down last year, but he was likely a bit drained, having touched the ball over 200 times in the seven prior games. In his stead is a committee of running backs, led by smallish Montell Clanton, who missed all but the first three games of the season last year.

As for the Iowa linebacking corps, it is once again stout. Mike Klinkenborg and Mike Humpal are both monsters against the run, and incoming starter A.J. Edds could be the best of them all. We know who they are and how good they'll be. Iowa's at a clear advantage here--most likely their best of any matchup.

NIU QB vs. Iowa D

NIU coach Joe Novak had this to say about new starter Dan Nicholson:

Like Iowa, Northern Illinois also is breaking in a new quarterback in Dan Nicholson, a player Novak says has “as much raw potential as any quarterback we’ve had here.”

“Dan’s got to learn how to manage the game a little bit better than he has in the past,” Novak said. “Drop back and rip, he can do that as well as any of them.”

Or, to translate: Bazooka arm, Skittles brain. Nicholson completed a hair over half his passes last season (60-115), and threw just five TD's to go with six picks. Now, Novak is stressing the importance of mental improvement, not lauding Nicholson for it. That is a major advantage for Iowa.

Consider, especially, that all-Universe tailback Garrett Wolfe got just 66 yards on 22 carries against the Hawkeyes last year. This year's running game should be equally as anemic, so NIU will have to depend on the golden arm of a space case, and I am A-OK with that.

SPECIAL TEAMS

NIU kicker Chris Nendick has a golden foot and a funny name. He hit 20 of 27 kicks last year, and he'll probably compete for the Lou Groza award this year if he can add a few more yards to his makes (long of 44 last year). The Huskies' punter, one Andy Dittbenner, is not as good, netting only about 32 yards per punt. KR/PR Greg Turner is decent.

As for Iowa, the duties seem to shake out with Austin Signor handling kicking, and Ryan Donahue punting. Damian Sims and DJK are returning kicks, and Andy Brodell will likely return punts.

No clear edge here.

COACHES

Joe Novak is a wily old fart. He's been coaching since the early '70's, and he knows the game about as well as anyone. NIU has long been well-coached, and Iowa should not expect a disorganized opponent on Saturday.

Whether or not you think Iowa can match them in preparedness depends on whether you think the 2006 mid-collapse Kirk Ferentz will show up, or the 2002-2004 "why isn't this guy running the NFL yet?" Ferentz returns. Based on what we saw during the Alamo Bowl, it's probably safe to say the collapse is over.

Based on all this, it's really hard to imagine how Northern Illinois can win. Iowa ought to be able to move the sticks on a much more consistent basis, and a final score around 27-10 seems right.